Gigerenzer,G.

This article discusses the personal experience of the author regarding teaching physicians and judges risk literacy. A most fertile discovery was that natural frequencies facilitate Bayesian reasoning. For years, some psychologists claimed that people are lousy Bayesians because they ignore base rates and labeled this the base rate fallacy. In experiments, individuals were as a rule presented with conditional probabilities, such as hit rates and false alarm rates, and generally floundered when asked to estimate the Bayesian posterior probability. Doctors are not the only ones who receive inadequate training in understanding statistical evidence. Lawyers and judges get a mostly probability-free education. Basic research should be complemented by applied research, whenever possible and research on risk literacy is a case in point. What the author's research shows, however, is that one can make people risk savvy-with the proper tools. With natural frequencies, even fourth graders can solve Bayesian problems, just as doctors and patients can learn to better understand health statistics. In teaching people these skills, psychologists can make a difference. Risk literacy needs to be taught not only to ongoing doctors and judges, but beginning at elementary school. Risk-savvy citizens are indispensable pillars of a modern democracy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved)

Gigerenzer, G. (2014). How I got started: Teaching physicians and judges risk literacy. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 28, 612-614. doi:10.1002/acp.2980 (Full text)

Publication year	2014
Document type:	Article
Publication status:	Published
External URL:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/acp.2980 View
Categories:	EducationHealthProbability
Keywords: